Early election prognostication

I'm going to go ahead and make my presidential election prediction right now, subject to wild swings as new evidence comes in: Obama is going to beat Romney, and it's not going to be very close.

I'm basing this on largely on the status of http://www.electoral-vote.com/, a site I followed obsessively in 2008, and they wound up being a pretty good indicator of the race.

Electoral map as of 5/2/2012

Since Romney secured the nomination, nationwide polling on Obama vs. Romney has been close enough to be called a dead heat in some cases.  This one, for example.  Despite this, right now on a state by state basis, the election numbers look really, really good for the incumbent.


Electoral-vote.com takes statewide polls and uses them as a basis for counting up the electoral votes that will be awarded in each area.  They use seven categories: Strong, Weak, and Barely Dem; Strong, Weak, and Barely GOP, and Exactly Tied.  At the present time, taking all preferences into account including strong, weak, and barely Dem, Obama wins by 290 EV to 215. It's a solid lead of 75 EV with 33 up in the air.

Also noteworthy is the fact that a lot more of Obama's lead comes from "Strong Dem" states (187) than the reverse. There are only 76 "Strong GOP" electoral votes, and in fact, if you add Strong and Weak GOP, they STILL don't add up to total as much as Strong Dem.

There are a few caveats in this assessment.  One is that the state by state numbers are probably not as current as the national numbers.  Since it is more work to poll in fifty separate states than to randomly sample the entire nation, the numbers at the site are almost certainly lagging behind, and do not reflect Romney's post-primary bump, such as it is.  Another issue is that campaign season hasn't really started yet.  Since the case of Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission concluded in the Supreme Court, private businesses now have the right to make unlimited campaign contributions without revealing who they are.  It's quite possible that this development could strongly favor Romney.

By the same token, though, Obama hasn't properly started his campaign either, and campaigning has always been his strength.  Arguably he was a much better candidate than a president.  (Although, needless to say, in my eyes he's a better campaigner AND president than Romney would be.)  There's no reason to believe that he won't start pulling further ahead once he starts getting out there on the trail.  Furthermore, Obama is already vetted.  Die hards still believe (and will always believe) in birther conspiracies and so forth, but the "mysterious background" is already a dead issue for most voters, and so is the weakness that he had of being perceived as inexperienced in '08.

Not to be overlooked is the fact that Republicans can't stand Romney.  In early April after Santorum dropped out, he had a 34% favorability rating, the lowest of any post-primary candidate in decades.  George W. Bush at least had the "beer factor" going for him, the claim that voters thought he'd be a good guy to have a beer with (although I didn't see it).  Even among Republicans who hate Obama the most, the overall sentiment about Romney seems to tend towards "Eh... could be worse."

So I'm not setting this prediction in stone, but I'm not yet seeing very many scenarios that lead to President Romney.