I enjoyed the latest XKCD so much that I had to actually perform it.
Monday, May 07, 2012
Wednesday, May 02, 2012
Early election prognostication
I'm going to go ahead and make my presidential election prediction right now, subject to wild swings as new evidence comes in: Obama is going to beat Romney, and it's not going to be very close.
I'm basing this on largely on the status of http://www.electoral-vote.com/, a site I followed obsessively in 2008, and they wound up being a pretty good indicator of the race.
Since Romney secured the nomination, nationwide polling on Obama vs. Romney has been close enough to be called a dead heat in some cases. This one, for example. Despite this, right now on a state by state basis, the election numbers look really, really good for the incumbent.
I'm basing this on largely on the status of http://www.electoral-vote.com/, a site I followed obsessively in 2008, and they wound up being a pretty good indicator of the race.
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| Electoral map as of 5/2/2012 |
Since Romney secured the nomination, nationwide polling on Obama vs. Romney has been close enough to be called a dead heat in some cases. This one, for example. Despite this, right now on a state by state basis, the election numbers look really, really good for the incumbent.
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