Thursday, June 05, 2008

Obama is beating McCain

CBS News:

Presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama holds a six point lead over his Republican counterpart John McCain, a new CBS News poll finds. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, with 6 percent of respondents undecided.

Okay, so it's one poll. It's also one day (give or take) after Barack Obama became the official Democratic nominee. (Oh, you hadn't heard that yet?) He hasn't even started campaigning against McCain yet, who's had the benefit of being the declared Republican for couple of months.

Now on the one hand, I'm sure the Rovish knives will come out in full force at this point. On the other hand, I (perhaps naively) think the negatives about Obama have pretty much been aired out already. People who think he is simultaneously a Muslim, and atheist, and a scary black Christian, already think that at this point. This isn't going to change much, and the current numbers probably reflect this.

Is it okay to be cautiously optimistic yet?


  1. I'm keeping my fingers crossed AND praying AND sacrificing goats daily in the hopes that this country will finally dumb Dick McRoveBush's policies and elect Barack Obama.

  2. I'm not sure optimism is called for just yet. We know the right will play dirty and that Americans are susceptible at least to some degree. Still, I think you are right to point out that even a tie in the polls is great news for Obama since he has not been focusing on McCain until this week.


    This is my favorite election blog site that updates daily and provides some reasonably accurate and witty political commentary. I felt that Clinton was the safe choice if you wanted someone to get elected, but Obama was the choice if you were willing to take a chance that the election could end up big in your favor. Clinton pulled in a lot of support from people that generally came out to vote in large numbers (old white people), and are not prevent from voting via ballot discrimination. Obama drew most of his support from people that historically do not vote in large numbers come election time (young people), and from blacks that can have a hard time voting (see Florida, 2000, Ohio, 2004). If Obama can get these groups to vote, and prevent the republicans from blocking ballot access, it will not only cause a landslide victory for Obama, but help the Democratic party when seats at all levels of government. That is, if in 5 months he can still effectively get people out to vote.

  4. oh and...
    FAIR is like my favorite nonprofit group. Good example of how those Roves disciples do not even need to publicly come out with their Rovian tactics.

  5. As a Reagan Republican, I have to admit that Obama has a real chance of winning. Which if he does, better get used to $10 a gallon gasoline.

    As for me, I'm going to the polls in November and voting....for Bob Barr.
    That and the host of local elective issues that will be on the ballot.

    As you can probably tell, neither of the candidates represent my beliefs in a economic-powerhouse, energy independent, militarily strong America. Oh they may say they do but the policies of either candidate will put America on the road to serfdom real quick.

    BTW: I did vote for Bush in 2004, even went to his rally in Viera, FL.
    And I've never regretted a vote more.

  6. As a liberal, Hank, I heartily encourage you to continue voting for a third party. Good luck with that. ;)

  7. Anonymous10:40 PM

    Well, after reading here for a while now, I'm finally getting around to commenting on this blog.

    I'm much more optimistic than I was back in 2004. One thing fueling it is the current numbers at I find the Prediction Markets to be interesting, and it's encouraging to see such a large split between them.

    Hoping we can hang on to the Court,

  8. Hank, voting for a third party never works, and what does the president have to do with gas prices? His policy on procuring oil may make a difference, but the end product is on the gas companies. By the way, voting for the third party won't work. If the media doesn't place emphasis on the third party candidates, it would take an enormous grassroots movement, and well placed ads for someone to get a snowball is hell's chance to win. You have to vote best candidate...that has a reasonable chance to win.

    By the way, no being optimistic russell...the last time you were optimistic was the anniversary of John Scopes being indicted. Though I suppose it was also the anniversary of martin Luther being declared an outlaw, so...don't do it!